509,000 cattle this week, down 5.2% from a year ago and the lowest non holiday week since the end of May. Year to date slaughter is running 8.1% behind last year at 16.4 million head versus 17.8 million through the same week in 2025. Hog slaughter came in at 2.281 million, essentially flat week over week but now 3.3% below year ago.
The cattle kill has now dropped for two straight weeks from the mid 520s down to 509,000 and the year over year deficit is widening again after briefly narrowing in late July. On the hog side, 3.3% below year ago is new territory. The kill had been running within a percent or two of last year’s pace for most of the summer and this week breaks that pattern.
Friday’s Aug live cattle settle at 231.13 is holding above the 20 day at 228.99 but still well below the 50 day at 240.94 and the 200 day at 237.95. RSI at 60 has room. A close above 238 reclaims the 200 day and changes the structure, while a break below 223 reopens the path to the 52 week low at 207. Aug feeders settled at 344.94, clearing back above the 20 day at 342.31 with RSI at 48.8 neutral. Aug lean hogs settled at 95.50, below both the 20 day at 99.16 and the 50 day at 96.27 after giving back the entire July rally. RSI at 23.7 is deeply oversold and the 200 day at 90.25 is the next meaningful support if 95 does not hold.
|