Corn:
Dec corn up 3 1/2 overnight with open interest down over 20,000 contracts. French conditions fell another 3% and production was cut to 9 million tonnes, the smallest crop since 1980. The US attache lowered Ukraine’s corn exports to 14 million tonnes, 9 million below USDA, and Ukraine now says grain storage could fill by early October. Next week’s WASDE is expected to lean bullish: the 450 area looks like value and bulls have the edge.
Soybeans:
Nov beans up 5 overnight as China bought another 10 to 15 cargoes, bringing new crop purchases to roughly 25% of their 25 million tonne commitment. Nov held the 100 day near 1170 all week with stochastics deep in oversold territory. The market tested 1182 resistance overnight and may be headed for 1199 if buying continues. Sunday night’s forecast for western belt rains in week 2 is the next big swing factor.
Wheat:
Sep Chicago wheat up 2 3/4 as HRS area under drought jumped another 16% to 58%, up 34% in just 2 weeks. The US attache cut Ukraine’s wheat exports to 10.8 million tonnes vs USDA’s 14.5, and Ukraine’s Ag Ministry went even further to 8.3 million vs their earlier forecast of 17.6. Russia hit 3 more Ukrainian ships overnight. Sep Chicago continues to bounce off support at 626: a break above 650 could start a new leg higher.
Livestock:
Oct live cattle sold off sharply on rumors yesterday with open interest down over 5,500 contracts. The feeder cattle weakness points to something border related. The market tested pullback support at 224.15 with next support at 222.05. Cash in Kansas at 235, cutout down $4.11 to $363.86. Oct hogs hit a new 1 month low with 9 straight sessions of lower highs. Lean hog index at 96.95, pork cutout at $98.79, resistance 83.90, support 80.20.
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