QUARTERLY Grain Stocks

Quarterly Grain Stocks

🌽 Corn
On Farms: 2,959,100
Off Farms: 2,335,728
Total: 5,294,828

🌱 Soybeans
On Farms: 367,000
Off Farms: 694,122
Total: 1,061,122

🌾 Wheat
On Farms: 177,094
Off Farms: 743,018
Total: 920,112

Analysis 

Corn stocks at 5.29 billion, up 14%, continue to reflect the heavy supply theme from last quarter. With Sep corn settling at $4.28 today, trading below both the 50 day ($4.50) and 200 day ($4.41) moving averages, the market is already pressing lower and this report doesn’t give bulls much to work with. Disappearance at 3.74 billion ran 7% above year ago, so demand is solid but not enough to offset the supply wall. A close below the 20 day low near $4.06 opens the door to retest the 52 week low at $3.91.

Soybeans at 1.06 billion are the relative bright spot. Stocks up only 5% with on farm supplies actually down 11%, and disappearance surging 18% shows crush demand running hard. Nov beans at $11.30 are clinging to the 200 day near $11.20 with the 52 week low at $9.65 well below. A hold above $11.08 keeps the longer term uptrend intact, while reclaiming the 20 day near $11.36 would signal the selling is exhausted.

Wheat stocks up 8% at 920 million are bearish but the WASDE still projects a sharp tightening into 2026/27 with ending stocks dropping to 744 million on lower production. SRW wheat at $5.79 has pulled back hard from the $6.88 high, now below both the 20 day ($5.93) and 50 day ($6.19) but holding above the 200 day at $5.62. That $5.62 level is the line in the sand for the broader uptrend.