ANNUAL Planting Acreage

Annual Planting Acreage

Analysis 

Wheat is the headline. Winter wheat harvested area at 21.2 million acres would be a record low and only 26% of the crop rates good to excellent, down 23 points from last year. Drought gutted the Plains with Nebraska at 70% very poor to poor, Colorado 67%, Texas 64%. Other spring wheat at 9.39 million is the lowest since 1970. The balance sheet is tightening fast. At $5.789, wheat holds above the 200 day near $5.62 but needs to clear $5.94 before the market starts pricing in the damage.

Soybeans at 85.4 million came in 665,000 above the March intentions, bearish leaning. Acreage was up in 21 of 29 states as the rotation away from corn played out. At $11.296, beans are clinging to the 200 day near $11.20 which is the level that matters. A break below opens $10.80 to $11.00.

Corn at 95.3 million was unchanged from March, nonevent. Still the fourth largest since 1944 but down 3.5% from last year. Only 1.9 million acres left to plant versus 3.6 million a year ago, crop is well ahead. Condition at 67% good to excellent is fine. At $4.279, corn sits below the 200 day at $4.41 and without a July weather scare the path stays sideways to lower.