Corn:
Dec corn flat, stuck inside last Friday’s range with the breakout boundaries at 550 and 523. Agrimer cut French corn ending stocks to 1.46 million tonnes, a 20 year low, and China buying a US corn package at next week’s Trump/Xi meeting is the bullish wildcard. Gap support just under 510: a break below 515 is a buying opportunity, but rallies are likely to struggle this week.
Soybeans:
Nov beans up 9 1/2, testing Friday’s contract high on China/US summit optimism with the meeting 8 days out. NOPA August crush set a record for the month and soyoil stocks fell to 1.201 billion pounds, the lowest since November 2024. A close over 1335 1/4 could spark a round of new fund buying: next resistance 1344, then possibly 1366.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 1 1/2 as global demand picks up on the break: Algeria bought 500,000 tonnes and Pakistan’s 750,000 tonne tender should be completed today. Danube port congestion has stretched Ukraine wheat deliveries to Egypt to a month from 12 days before the disruptions. Yesterday’s low near 710 may be low enough for this break: resistance 739, larger support near 700.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle finally pulled back after 8 straight sessions of higher highs but held the 50 day moving average at 221.60, with 220.30 the next support and larger resistance just under 229. Friday’s Cattle on Feed is expected at 101.8% on feed, placements 96.8%, marketings 96.1%. Dec hogs closed below key 70.00 support at another new contract low: next support 67.10, resistance 70.95, and the path of least resistance points lower.
Energy:
Energy price volatility has been a nonfactor for corn this week but is improving ethanol margins. Weekly ethanol production is expected at 1.078 million barrels per day with stocks at 24.95 million barrels ahead of this morning’s report. Brazil’s new interior ethanol plants keep pulling corn away from exports, though ANEC raised its September export estimate to 5.74 million tonnes.
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