Corn:
Dec corn down 3, holding inside Friday’s big range. Conditions surprised 1% higher at 57% G/E and harvest is running 8% complete, with a much drier week 2 forecast set to bring on harvest pressure. Ukraine hit another Russian refinery overnight despite talk of an energy infrastructure truce: a break below 515 is a buying opportunity with gap support just under 510.
Soybeans:
Nov beans down 3 1/4 with conditions unchanged at 58% G/E and harvest at 6% complete vs the 3% average. Focus shifts to the September 24 China/US summit and harvest weather, with NOPA August crush due this morning at an expected 211.55 million bushels. Nov held 1291 support again: below 1292 triggers sell stops toward the 1260 to 1270 zone.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat down 4 1/4 after falling through retracement support at 719, now headed toward 701. Russian export prices dropped $5 this week to $274 a tonne, and southern Plains heat finally breaks this weekend with better rain chances to follow. The 700 area should be strong support, but the market needs a new bullish catalyst to turn back up.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle posted another day of sharp gains with open interest up nearly 3,500, closing above the 50 day moving average for the first time since early July: next resistance is the 100 and 200 day convergence at 228.50 to 229.10. The feeder index jumped $10.49 and the Fort Morgan plant reopening is improving the slaughter pace. Dec hogs melted to a new contract low before a late bounce: a close below the August low at 70.15 is a bearish signal, with resistance at the 72.60 gap.
Energy:
Ukraine struck another Russian refinery overnight, a day after President Trump said the two sides agreed not to attack each other’s energy infrastructure. Fuel surcharges on US railroads are up 150% from the 2025 average and now account for more than 10% of grain and soy transportation costs, a rising drag on basis and margins.
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