Lakefront Morning Briefing

Lakefront Morning Briefing

Corn:
Bearish US forecast with rain expected across Iowa and Illinois over the next week, but prices holding their ground on EU crop stress and Black Sea disruptions. Dec corn support at the gap and 200 day near 468, resistance at 485. Ethanol production expected near unchanged at 1.093 million barrels per day.

Soybeans:
Nov beans testing the 1204 gap from last week’s breakout. Rain in the forecast is easing yield concerns but private forecasters expect August to look similar to July with an active Midwest pattern. China auctioning 500,000 tonnes of old crop beans Friday to make room for US shipments. A close below $12.00 shifts the technicals bearish.

Wheat:
Ukraine struck Russia’s Rosneft refinery overnight. Russia proposing to arm grain ships with machine guns. Grain intake restricted at 3 Russian Black Sea ports. EU wheat exports in July expected 61% below last year and production down 8%. Pakistan importing 1 million tonnes for food security.

Livestock:
Cattle finally sustained a bounce yesterday with live cattle open interest down 5,200 on the rally. Heat causing death loss in the Plains. October hogs held the 200 day at 87.20, lean hog index at 98.23 is the highest since mid October, but bearish seasonals loom in August.

Energy:
Crude rebounding this morning after this week’s sharp selloff. Ukraine’s strike on Russia’s Rosneft refinery adds supply risk back into the market. Energy stocks and ethanol data due out this morning.

Reports coming out today (CST)

Energy Stocks 9:30 AM
Ethanol Report 9:30 AM
Dairy Products Sales 2:00 PM