Ethanol Production

Ethanol Production

Production: 1.133 mb/day
Weekly Total: 7.931 mil bbl
Stocks: 24.726 mil bbl
Corn Used: 112.84 vs 91.53 needed

Analysis 

Production jumped to 1.133 million barrels per day for the week ending July 24, a new high for this week of the year and 3.4% above last year. The old mark of 1.109 from 2024 is gone by a wide margin. Weekly output at 7.931 million barrels is the strongest since early March.

Stocks built to 24.726 million, the highest since May 22, and edged past 2025’s 24.716 for a new seasonal high by the thinnest of margins. Plants are running 6.3% above the five year average pace while stocks sit less than 10,000 barrels above year ago, so the extra output is moving through the system rather than piling up. Cumulative corn use crossed 5 billion bushels this week, with actual measured grind still tracking only about 1% above last year against a USDA target that needs more.

Corn settled Tuesday at 480.50 and is trading about 5 lower this morning. The trend is intact, with the 20 day at 463, the 50 day at 448, and the 200 day at 445 all below the market, and RSI at 60.5 has cooled from last week even as price ground higher. A close above the 52 week high at 487.50 opens the door to 500, while a break back under the 20 day near 463 puts the 450 area in play.