Lakefront Morning Briefing

Lakefront Morning Briefing

Corn:
Dec corn up 1 1/2 overnight, holding 458 support with open interest down another 15,000. Conditions unchanged at 61% G/E vs 72% last year. Tomorrow’s WASDE and FSA acreage update are the catalysts: yield est. 182.4 vs 183.0 and FSA may lean toward lower planted area. Below 457 targets 451.

Soybeans:
Nov beans quiet at 3/4 higher, stuck near the 1170 pivot ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE and FSA acreage. Conditions fell 1% to 62% G/E with North Dakota down 13%. Stocks est. 306 million vs 310 but any acreage adjustment could increase rather than decrease area. Below 1167 would trigger aggressive selling.

Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 4 3/4. HRS conditions fell 4% to 51% and private analysts cut Russian August exports to the lowest in 10 years for the month. Brazil expected to import a record 9 million tonnes this season. Buying pressure needs to get more aggressive: Sep Chicago holding support at 626 but can’t sustain rallies.

Livestock:
Oct live cattle nearing the 200 day at 227.90: above 228 targets a retest of 230. Cutout surged $7.06 to $371.42. Brazil’s beef exports have hit 90% of China’s quota, which may redirect shipments to the US. Oct hogs bounced off Friday’s 1 month low on fund short covering, next resistance at 85.40.

Reports Coming Out Today

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook: 11:00am