The EIA raised its third quarter Brent forecast $11 to around $85 after pushing shut in estimates higher on continued Strait of Hormuz constraints, and the full year 2026 number moves to $87 with 2027 at $69. Commercial crude inventories are now expected to hold below the five year low through the end of 2026.
Henry Hub went the other way, cut 50 cents to $2.87 for the third quarter on Freeport maintenance and record production, with storage heading for a record 3,985 Bcf by the end of October. Crude stocks tell the tighter story, down 25 million barrels in May, 15 million in June, and 4 million in July as exports run at historically high levels.
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