USDA Export Sales

USDA Export Sales

🌽 Corn: 1,157,057 MT 

99.4% of USDA Est | Inside est range

🌱 Soybeans: 424,869 MT

 98.7% of USDA Est | Inside est range

🌾 Wheat: 400,844 MT 

| 23.7% of USDA Est | Inside est range

Analysis

🌽 Corn: 1,157,057 MT

Corn export sales came in strong at over 1.15M MT for the current marketing year, up roughly 16% from the prior week and landing inside the trade estimate range. Spain emerged as the surprise top buyer at 263K MT, with Mexico close behind at 260K MT and Japan at 246K MT. Cumulative commitments have now reached 99.4% of the USDA’s 3.325 billion bushel annual target from the June WASDE, well ahead of the 94.0% five year average and leaving only about 46K MT per week needed to finish on pace. With the marketing year winding down, the export program is essentially complete. Jul corn settled at $4.184 on Wednesday, continuing to trade below the 20 day moving average near $4.32 as the market digests a comfortable supply picture. The RSI has recovered to 21.8 from the extreme oversold readings near 9 just two weeks ago, suggesting the selling pressure is beginning to ease. A sustained push above the 20 day MA would be the first meaningful signal of stabilization, while a failure to reclaim that level keeps the focus on the $4.10 to $4.15 area as support.

🌱 Soybeans: 424,869 MT

Soybean sales surged to 424,869 MT, more than doubling the prior week’s figure of 211,292 MT and coming in inside the estimate range. Egypt was the clear standout buyer at 178K MT, with Indonesia and Mexico each posting near 55K MT. The cumulative pace now sits at 98.7%, pulling ahead of the 97.9% five year average for the first time in recent weeks and leaving only 44,588 MT per week to hit the USDA’s 1.51 billion bushel estimate from the June WASDE, which trimmed exports by 20M bushels while raising crush to 2.65B. Nov beans traded at $11.2225 on Wednesday, still well below the 20 day moving average at $11.49 and remaining in oversold territory with the RSI at 23.1. A close back above the 20 day MA would open the door to a test of the $11.50 area, while continued weakness below $11.15 targets the recent lows near $11.13.

🌾 Wheat: 400,844 MT

Wheat posted another strong positive week at 400,844 MT in current year sales, a welcome continuation of the recovery after weeks of heavy cancellations earlier in the marketing year transition. Japan led buying at 167K MT, followed by Mexico at 80K MT and Thailand at 57K MT. The new 26/27 marketing year pace of 23.7% is now approaching the 24.0% five year average, with 4.99M bushels committed out of the USDA’s projected 910M bushel target. The June WASDE lowered 26/27 production to 1.543B bushels from 1.561B on a yield cut to 47.0 bpa, trimming ending stocks to 744M bushels and the average farm price estimate to $6.00. Jul wheat settled at $6.095, pushing above the 20 day moving average at $6.04 for the first time in the current cycle. The RSI at 49.3 reflects a significant recovery to neutral territory from the deeply oversold conditions of recent weeks. A sustained close above the 20 day MA would confirm the shift in momentum and open the door to a test of the $6.20 to $6.50 area, while a pullback below $5.85 would put the recent lows back in play.