USDA Export Sales

USDA Export Sales

🌽 Corn: 332,700 MT (▲6% wk | ▼44% 4wk avg)
🌱 Soybeans: 56,400 MT (▼70% wk | ▼70% 4wk avg)
🌾 Wheat: 290,000 MT (▲23% wk | ▼14% 4wk avg)

Analysis 

China booked another 1,006,000 MT of new crop soybeans, the second straight week over a million. Mexico added 330K on top of that. Current year bean sales came in at just 56,400 MT, down 70 percent from the previous week and the four week average, with 117K of Unknown cancellations doing most of the damage. Corn edged up to 332,700 MT from last week’s marketing year low, with Mexico at 203K and Taiwan at 152K, but 401K of Unknown reductions kept the net number pinned. Wheat bounced to 290K, led by Mexico at 138K and Taiwan at 98K.

The new crop soybean buying is relentless. China has now locked in over 2 million MT across the last two weeks alone, and the total new crop outstanding is north of 6.1 million MT. Current year numbers across all three commodities are being suppressed by Unknown cancellations as old crop positions get unwound, and the physical side tells a different story: corn loadings ran 1,786K MT, up 13 percent on the week and 6 percent above the four week average. The new crop forward books are where the real demand signal lives right now.

Wednesday’s settle has Nov beans at 1239, a new 52 week high, with RSI at 77. Dec corn at 484.75 is one dollar from its own 52 week high at 486 with RSI at 67. Wheat at 705.75 is the most extended, also a fresh 52 week high with RSI at 80. A close above 486 in corn opens the door to levels not seen since last summer. Beans and wheat are overbought by the numbers, but the forward buying gives the rally something to lean on besides weather.