Short Term Energy Outlook

Report Briefing

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook | June 2026

🛢️ Brent Crude: $95.39/bbl (prev $94.85) 

🛢️ WTI Crude: $88.32/bbl (prev $85.68) 

🔥 HH Natural Gas: $3.60/MMBtu (prev $3.50)

⛽ U.S. Crude Production: 13.72 mb/d (prev 13.65)

The EIA raised its 2026 oil price outlook for the second consecutive month, lifting the WTI forecast $2.64 to $88.32/bbl and Brent slightly to $95.39. The revision comes with crude trading near the lower end of its recent range, with WTI settling at $90.54 last Friday, well off the $112.95 high posted earlier this year. Commercial crude inventories drew 8.0 million barrels for the week ending May 29 to 433.7 million, sitting just below year ago levels and keeping the physical market snug. Refinery utilization pushed to 94.7%, the highest reading of the spring season. OPEC+ announced another incremental output hike of 188,000 bpd for July on June 7, but the market largely shrugged it off with global production expectations revised down 2.6% for 2026 overall. The U.S. production forecast edged up to 13.72 mb/d even as the rig count holds flat at 563, just 4 rigs above last year. On the natural gas side, the EIA revised the 2026 Henry Hub forecast to $3.60 from $3.50 and made a notable jump on 2027, raising it from $3.18 to $3.46 on growing LNG export demand. The front month settled at $3.23 last Friday, about 10% below year ago levels, but storage is tightening with the end of season target revised down to 3,371 Bcf from 3,466 Bcf last month.