Corn:
Dec corn up 1/4 overnight and holding this week’s lows despite an estimated 42,000 contracts of fund selling the first 3 days. Private analysts cut EU production to 49.1 million tonnes from 53.7, the French crop may hit a 50 year low, and Brazil’s ethanol blend increase to 32% took effect this week. Final retracement support at 451 is looking like a value zone.
Soybeans:
Nov beans holding 100 day support at 1170 as China stepped in with another 13 cargoes yesterday, bringing new crop purchases near 6 million tonnes. Open interest dropped 14,500 contracts to the lowest since early June. Stochastics are oversold and close in resistance is 1182: a move above there could trigger more aggressive short covering ahead of the weekend.
Wheat:
Sep Chicago wheat up 3 1/2 overnight after Russia attacked a wheat ship at Odessa. Rallies have not carried this week but fundamentals keep building: Algeria bought up to 720,000 tonnes in their tender, private analysts cut EU SRW production to 126.8 million tonnes, and Western Australia faces a dry August on El Nino effects. 100 day support holds at 632 with retracement at 626 1/2.
Livestock:
Oct live cattle hit a new 3 week high and briefly cleared 230, the 50% retracement, before closing back below. Final retracement resistance at 233.00 with support at 224.15. Beef export sales were 19,800 tonnes vs the 4 week average of 11,600. Oct hogs posted their lowest close in a month, testing last Thursday’s low. Lean hog index at 97.17 is down 1.18 on the week, pork cutout at $100.55, resistance 86.30, support 81.90.
Energy:
Ethanol production hit a new record high for the week at 1.107 million barrels per day, up 2.4% year over year: bullish for corn demand. Stocks also set a new weekly high at 24.524 million barrels, somewhat offsetting the production strength. A major Russian sun oil producer halted operations at the Taman port after a Ukrainian strike, supportive for global veg oil and bean oil. Mosaic warned global phosphate production could fall 30% on the Strait of Hormuz closure, a potential longer term input cost factor for grains.
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