Corn:
Dec corn steady after Friday's severe break touched limit down on record daily volume, taking out the 2019 high: USDA raised yield more than expected, jumped carry in 400 million bushels and pushed ending stocks near the highest guess, with Nebraska's 11 BPA yield jump raising eyebrows. Fund selling was estimated at a massive 62,500 contracts, yet COT still shows a large net long of 317,359. Next major support is the 460 area: resistance heavy above 490, with hedge selling on every rally.
Soybeans:
Nov beans down 9 1/4 overnight after Friday's late rebound failed to follow through: the report had nothing for the bulls beyond tighter bean oil supplies, and carryout tightening worries are gone. Brazil is planting at a record 20% pace vs the 11.55% average, and managed money added to a 251,660 contract net long even as prices hit a 6 week low. China needs to step up in a big way with the dollar near 1 1/2 year highs: otherwise next support is 1250.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 1 1/2 after Friday's 2 month low, dragged more by corn's limit down spill than its own slightly bearish numbers. Trump said Saturday Russia and Ukraine were set to agree on a ceasefire, unconfirmed by Moscow, while the 3 Baltic states formally proposed an EU ban on Russian grain transit that would cost Russia its Baltic ports. After a month long slide, the 200 day near 648 is the magnet: risk and reward on new shorts looks limited, and wheat may be the first grain to bottom.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle closed Friday at a one month high on above average volume with open interest up 1,700: a real breakout, helped by cheap feedgrains, with the 200 day at 229.10 and retracement resistance at 230.32 the next targets. Southern bids at 226 were passed on Saturday. Dec hogs closed at new contract lows and the lowest close of the year: production is outrunning demand with the kill up big and the index at its lowest since late February, so the market is pricing down to force exports against a strong dollar. Next support 66.20.
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