Corn:
Dec corn up 3/4, sitting mid range into the 11 AM WASDE: yield is expected at 177.8 BPA, down from 178.5, with ending stocks rising to 1.694 billion bushels. Below 177 sparks a bullish reaction, above 178.5 triggers long liquidation, and sell stops wait under this week's 495 low. Today's close matters more than the 11 AM knee jerk: fundamental support 475 to 485, resistance near 520, and fading the extremes is the play.
Soybeans:
Nov beans up 6 1/4 ahead of the report: yield expected at 52.9 BPA with stocks at 309 million bushels. Above 53 invites heavy selling, closer to 52 gives a bullish jolt, and China still needs roughly 10 million more tonnes by year end to hit its 25 million commitment with the dollar rising. A friendly reaction draws hedge selling off a historically fast harvest week: a 20 to 30 cent rally is a selling opportunity, support at the 50 day at 1266 then 1250.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat steady with no surprise expected: stocks seen rising to 722 million bushels. The EU model trimmed next week's southern Plains rain, Ukraine hit 2 more Russian refineries overnight, and Lithuania's PM calls Russian grain transit unacceptable and plans to propose an EU wide ban. Wheat follows corn and beans today: 670 key support, a breakout over 707 triggers fund short covering.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle bounced off intraday weakness a 2nd straight day with buyers stepping up on breaks: higher cash today could spark new buying, with the September highs at 225.50 the trigger for a larger rally and yesterday's low landing right on 222.25 support. Light northern cash traded 218. Dec hogs tested the 67.97 contract lows as cutout sank to $79.36, a 3 1/2 year low within $0.70 of the May 2023 bottom: prior probes to new lows have bounced on the record fund short, but the trend stays down, next support 66.20.
Energy:
Ukraine struck 2 more Russian refineries overnight, keeping energy infrastructure in the line of fire despite stalled ceasefire talk.
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