Corn:
Dec corn down 3 1/2 after a strong session that drew fund buying of nearly 20,000 contracts on crop quality concerns, fading this morning as the dollar rallies back toward contract highs. Private analysts hold yield at 177 BPA with harvested acres possibly down 300,000 to 500,000, and Brazil's September exports fell to 5.21 million tonnes on heavy domestic ethanol use. EU corn set a new contract high: quality worries keep a bid in through Friday's WASDE, with 515 to 520 strong resistance after the 50 day rejected Dec at 509.
Soybeans:
Nov beans up 1 after a strong high range close, testing resistance near 1311 on ideas USDA trims yield Friday and President Trump's comment that China could double its bean purchases, with the holiday ending tomorrow. Bloomberg's pre report estimates sit at 52.9 BPA and 309 million bushels of ending stocks, and weakening basis is fattening crush margins as harvest accelerates. Above 1311, the odds rise of a run at the early September highs near 1335.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat down 5 3/4 on the dollar's bounce after 4 straight sessions of higher highs and higher lows. SovEcon cut Russian production to 87.5 million tonnes, Ukraine expects acreage down as much as 15%, and wet weather is slowing the Canadian Prairie harvest, with Chicago open interest up 7,000 on the rally as new longs enter. Friday's report should show a slight stocks bump with no major surprise: through the 50 day at 706, next resistance is 718.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle surged to their 2nd best close since mid August on the best volume in 3 weeks, breaking above the recent consolidation a day after testing its floor: next hurdle is the September highs at 225.50, intraday support 222.25, with shrinking 4th quarter fed cattle supplies the fundamental backdrop and cutout rebounding to $378.93. Dec hogs eased on lower cash, cutout and index, but volume was strong and open interest jumped over 7,000: the pullback is the bulls' test, support 69.60 then 69.20, and above 71.62 the record fund short covering turns aggressive, 50 day resistance near 72.10.
Energy:
Weekly ethanol production is expected at 1.028 million barrels per day, up from 1.007 last week, with stocks seen drawing down to 23.635 million barrels ahead of this morning's report. Brazil's September corn exports fell 31% from a year ago largely on surging domestic corn use for ethanol, a structural demand shift tightening exportable supply.
