Corn:
Dec corn up 3 after conditions fell 3% to 54% G/E, more than expected, and harvest came in at 23% complete vs the 27% average with Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan and Colorado all well behind. Friday's WASDE could hold a slight yield cut from the western belt wet weather: each 1 bushel off yield is roughly 85 million bushels. Dec tested 495 a 3rd straight session: below it opens 488, with hedge selling waiting toward 515.
Soybeans:
Nov beans up 5 1/2 with harvest at 25% complete vs the 33% average: Iowa is 33 points behind and Nebraska 25, though a wide open window arrives this week. Conditions slipped 1% to 57% G/E, the Brazilian real holds near contract highs, and cumulative shipments run 33% above last year. Rallies toward 1300 to 1310 face stiff hedge resistance unless China returns from holiday Thursday buying aggressively.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 7 and Dec KC up 7 3/4: winter wheat seeding hit 36%, a record low for the date vs the 46% average, with Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas all well behind. Russia is targeting grain ships, with 2 merchant vessels hit near Bulgaria and a Turkish grain ship sunk off Romania, while Ukraine launched 650 drones toward Moscow. Fund shorts are starting to cover: through 705 opens 718, then 731.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle tested the bottom of the 2 week range but the September 21 gap at 217.50 to 218.77 still holds, keeping the edge with the bulls: above last week's 223.85 high swings the door open for a larger move, key resistance 225.42. Cash is expected steady a 4th straight week, showlists are down across all regions, and the cutout jumped $4.07 to $378.26. Dec hogs took out last week's highs on light fund short covering, but the lean hog index fell below 80 for the first time in 2 1/2 years: the rally is technical, not fundamental, and above 71.62 the record short covering could run further than expected, support 69.70.
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