Corn:
Dec corn up 2 1/2 after yesterday’s bearish stocks report hammered the market: 2.095 billion bushels came in above the highest guess for a 2nd straight year, the largest September stocks since 2018, and fund selling was estimated at a massive 57,500 contracts on the best volume in over a month. Large fund flow shifts typically play out over 3 days, so more liquidation pressure is possible through week’s end with China starting its Golden Week holiday today. Dec reached the 500 breakout objective: a close below opens next support at 488.
Soybeans:
Nov beans near steady after stocks came in at 315 million bushels, below the 321 million average estimate, a neutral to friendly number swamped by the selloff in grains. China’s Golden Week limits new flash sales through next week just as a much drier pattern opens the harvest window across the northern Midwest and Plains. USDA August crush is out this afternoon, expected at 211.3 million bushels: below this week’s low at 1279 1/4 points toward 1250.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 4 1/4 and Dec KC up 8 3/4, rebounding after the Small Grains report leaned bearish: stocks were slightly friendly at 1.846 billion bushels but winter wheat production at 1.019 billion came in above the highest pre report estimate. South Korea bought 100,000 tonnes of US milling wheat overnight, and SovEcon sees no normal Black Sea port operations before the start of 2027. Down $1.22 in September and deeply oversold: short positions here have limited reward, next resistance 711.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle broke above the week long consolidation to a 2 week high on feedgrain weakness and friendly technicals: the path of least resistance looks higher with the September highs near 225.50 next, and gap support at 217.50 to 218.77 still holding. Slaughter has recovered to slightly above last week’s pace as the Southwest Kansas plants resume full operations, and the cutout edged up to $382.79. Dec hogs stalled again with the pork cutout at $85.44, its lowest in more than 2 1/2 years, and the lean hog index at its lowest since January 16: record fund shorts stay comfortable unless 71.62 gives way, support 66.90.
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