Corn:
Dec corn up 3, coiling sideways ahead of the 11 AM quarterly stocks report: expectations sit at 1.924 billion bushels, a 6 year high, with USDA also setting the final 2025 carryout that some in the trade believe was overstated. EU grain production is now pegged 9.6% below last year with corn cut 3.6% from last month’s estimate. A much drier pattern opens the harvest window starting next week: rallies toward 535 to 540 face stiff resistance, 50 day support at 507 with more important support near 500.
Soybeans:
Nov beans up 3 1/4 on rumors China is poking around for US bean offers at the Gulf and PNW, easing fears demand would fade post summit. Chinese crusher inventories are the highest in 15 years with negative crush margins, so buying likely stays small and steady rather than bulk. Stocks are expected at 324 million bushels at 11 AM with the final 2025 carryout also set: close in resistance 1312, and a non-bullish number likely resumes the weakness.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 5 1/2, rebounding off another monthly low with the market down well over $1 this month: a bearish stocks number may already be priced in, with expectations at 1.870 billion bushels and all wheat production at 1.524 billion. Russia hit one of the Danube ports overnight, and significant southern Plains rain through the weekend will dent the drought and boost the seeding pace. A strong close today could shift the near term edge to the bulls: support just under 680, initial resistance 711.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle held the 218.77 to 223.20 range a 7th straight session, but open interest jumped more than 4,200 despite the sideways trade, and Brazilian beef into China now faces a 55% tariff with the import quota met while tariffs on US meat were just cut. Higher cash trade in the second half of the week could be the breakout spark: resistance 223.20 then 225.50, gap support 217.50 to 218.77, and the cutout rose $2.18 to $382.66. Dec hogs closed strong off Monday’s contract lows but short covering was light and cash, index and cutout all keep weakening: above the September 22 high at 71.62 opens aggressive fund short covering, support 66.90.
Energy:
Weekly ethanol production is expected at 1.007 million barrels per day, down from 1.028 last week, with stocks seen falling to 24.193 million barrels ahead of this morning’s report. Slowing production into peak harvest keeps ethanol margins in focus as a corn demand signal.
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