Corn:
Dec corn up 3/4, stuck in a 13 cent range this week between 526 1/4 and 539 1/4 ahead of next week’s China talks, where corn is highly likely to be included in any purchase package. French conditions fell another 3% to a historic low of 23% G/E, and early yield reports from Illinois, Indiana and Missouri are running well below last year. The dollar at a 1 1/2 month high and disappointing export sales are the near term headwinds: below 515 remains a buying opportunity.
Soybeans:
Nov beans down 11 3/4 but inside the week’s 40 cent range as traders wait on this weekend’s Bessent meeting with Chinese negotiators: talks start Thursday and headline risk is extremely high. Export sales came in strong at 1.7 million tonnes with cumulative sales at 45.7% of USDA’s forecast vs the 35.5% average, and SinoGrain set another 543,000 tonne reserve auction for Tuesday, making room for US beans. Above 1335 1/4 targets 1344 then 1366: a break below 1292 would be a technical disappointment.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 3/4, holding mid range with support at 710 and 701 and resistance at 736. The wetter southern Plains outlook and the dollar’s 1 1/2 month high are capping rallies even as Russia hit cargo ships at Odessa and a Danube port overnight and plans to shift some exports to the Arctic port of Murmansk. Risk and reward on short positions looks limited at these levels with the Black Sea export pace still slow.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle fell sharply again, led by feeders, as the New Mexico border crossing reopens next week: close in support is 214.80 with end of week short covering likely ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed, expected at 101.8% on feed, placements 96.8%, marketings 96.1%. Boxed beef cutout dropped $3.66 to $372.15. Dec hogs show no sign of a technical bottom with the lean hog index at 85.81, the lowest since February 3: next support 67.10, resistance 70.95 then 71.90.
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