Corn:
Dec corn down 6 1/4, testing this week’s low at 526 1/2 on a pullback in energies ahead of today’s 11 AM WASDE. Reuters estimates have ending stocks at 1.528 billion bushels and yield at 178.2 BPA: a yield over 180 would disappoint the bulls. A bearish reaction toward gap support just under 510 is a buying opportunity, while a bullish report opens a run at the 555 to 560 resistance band.
Soybeans:
Nov beans down 15 1/4 on profit taking after yesterday’s breakout to new contract highs, driven by China demand and reports Beijing may drop its 10% export duty, opening purchases from private Chinese crushers. Reuters pegs yield at 52.5 BPA with stocks at 298 million bushels, and a yield near 52.0 would tighten stocks below 250 million. Technical buyers likely at 1310 or below: resistance 1344, then 1366.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat down 6 3/4 as rain chances in Kansas creep further into west central areas. Russia struck a ship at Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port overnight, and Ukraine’s wheat exports since July 1 stand at 2.031 million tonnes vs 3.55 million last year. Today’s report has no production update with stocks seen near 718 million: prices are more than 55 cents off last week’s highs, so even a neutral number could spark a bullish reaction.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle rallied in the last hour Thursday to a new high for the month, posting higher highs and higher lows for 5 straight sessions on above average volume: a move over 220.30 opens the 50 day at 222.00. Asking prices near 225 are $2 to $3 higher than last week, and the first screwworm case in a horse was detected in Texas along the border. Dec hogs hold the uptrend: above 75.30 opens 76.50, with the head and shoulders bottom projecting 80.00 and 73.10 the buy zone.
Energy:
Energies are pulling back this morning after a strong week, part of the pressure on corn through ethanol economics. Weekly ethanol production slipped 1% to 1.099 million barrels per day, while stocks rose to 25.187 million barrels, a record high for this week of the year. Rising crop input costs are also flagged as a knock on effect of the energy rally.
|
