Corn:
Dec corn down 3 1/2 overnight after fund buying estimated at 59,000 contracts yesterday and 125,000 in 5 days, triggered by Putin’s threat to escalate the conflict and rule out further Ukraine talks. Dec has made higher lows 10 of the last 11 sessions. The market is extremely overbought but pullbacks remain buying opportunities: next significant resistance above 550.
Soybeans:
Nov beans down 7 1/4 after speculative inflows pushed them to a new contract high, helped by a 333,000 tonne flash sale to China and estimated fund buying of 29,000. Open interest rose over 12,000 contracts and export sales this morning are expected between 1.1 and 3 million tonnes. Corrections should be temporary: next resistance 1279 with a longer term objective toward $13.50.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat closed limit up at a new contract high on Putin’s escalation threat, triggering expanded $0.70 limits today. The close above the head and shoulders neckline at 734 is a significant bullish signal, and MSC, the top container line, halted service to Novorossiysk. Close in resistance at 777, pullback support 730.
Livestock:
Oct live cattle finished mixed after a new 2026 low as the signed deal for 100,000 tonnes of monthly ground beef imports starts September 1 for 90 days. The market is extremely oversold at near term support around 210, which could prompt end of week short covering. Northern cash traded 216 to 220, down $4 to $7. Oct hogs remain choppy: below last week’s low at 79.67 triggers stop loss selling, initial resistance 82.45.
Energy:
Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.112 million barrels per day, a record high for this week of the year and up 3.9% from last year: corn use for the week is estimated at 110.75 million bushels, a strong grind read. Ethanol stocks at 25.206 million barrels are also a record for the week and the highest since May
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