Lakefront Morning Briefing

Lakefront Morning Briefing

Corn:
Dec corn down 3/4 overnight after holding up Monday on the highest trading volume since early March. Conditions fell more than expected, down 3% to 57% G/E vs 71% a year ago, with the Dakotas and Colorado deteriorating most. The market is overextended after a $0.67 rally in 10 sessions but Sunday’s gap at 509 remains close in support, with strong support in the 495 to 505 zone.

Soybeans:
Nov beans down 6 1/4, taking out yesterday’s low as bean oil weakness drags the complex lower. Conditions fell 1% to 60% G/E vs 69% a year ago, and open interest dropped more than 17,000 on Monday’s break, signaling long liquidation. It will likely take another round of significant China buying to turn the market: retracement support at 1205 and 1196.

Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat down 9 after Ukraine’s President Zelensky hinted at a diplomatic track to end grain export attacks, and moderate rain chances are showing up for western Kansas and the Panhandles. Russian export prices at $210 a tonne are nearly $2 below US SRW spot values. Winter wheat harvest is complete and HRS harvest is 62% done, well ahead of the 52% average: Dec Chicago retracement support at 680 and 672.

Livestock:
Oct live cattle turned aggressively lower Monday after a higher open, closing near the lows as the Douglas, Arizona border crossing opened at roughly 700 head per day, with 2 more crossings possible in 2 months. Key support is Friday’s low at 212.67. Oct hogs closed marginally higher but below average volume reduces confidence in Friday’s reversal: resistance 82.45 and 83.50, key support 79.67. July pork in cold storage at 439.43 million pounds was well above last year’s 404.63.

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