Lakefront Morning Briefing

Lakefront Morning Briefing

Corn:
Dec corn up 4 1/4 overnight and approaching the May highs at 506 1/2 as the dollar tests 3 month lows. Illinois tour yields came in at 184.2 BPA vs 199.6 last year, with USDA carrying the state at 212, and milo conditions are just 28% G/E vs over 60% a year ago. Close in support at 493: expect some profit taking before the weekend but no sign the rally is done.

Soybeans:
Nov beans up 4 1/2 at another new monthly high, on track to test the July contract highs at 1256 1/2. Illinois pod counts fell 3.3% from last year and open interest is up 26,000 in 2 days, signaling new buyers. A close above the July highs opens a longer term rally, but expect some long liquidation by Friday’s close once tour fever subsides.

Wheat:
Sep Chicago wheat up 6 1/4 at a new monthly high as Asian mills look for Black Sea alternatives: the Odessa port is essentially closed and Russia hit another cargo ship at Chornomorsk overnight. Ukraine’s August grain exports are running just 20% of the monthly target. Chicago open interest fell nearly 14,000 as funds exit shorts: a close over 680 opens the July highs at 711, pullback support up to 674.

Livestock:
Oct live cattle settled at the lowest level of 2026, closing below 217.75 support with key support at 215.22, even as the cutout jumped $3.84 to $394.99. Cash is down roughly $35 from the June peak and the border reopening at Douglas next week adds pressure. Oct hogs bounced modestly after testing the 2026 lows: a close below the June lows at 79.77 points to 77.10, lean hog index 94.78 is the lowest since July 16.

Reports Coming Out Today

Export Sales 7:30 AM
Natural Gas Storage 9:30 AM