Lakefront Morning Briefing

Lakefront Morning Briefing

Corn:
Dec corn up 4 1/4 overnight on a 70% chance of the strongest El Nino in 75 years, withering EU crops, and Russia rejecting any return to the grain corridor. French growers now estimate production at 7 to 8 million tonnes vs 9.5 last month and no ships have loaded at Odessa in 2 weeks. Above 481 1/2 targets 500. Pro Farmer tour starts Monday.

Soybeans:
Nov beans up 4 3/4 on SinoGrain’s new 360,000 tonne reserve auction and El Nino concerns. Indiana flooding after 10 to 15 inches of rain is getting attention but the major production areas are in good shape. $12.00 should be significant resistance unless China demand picks up. Support at 1175.

Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 11 1/4 as Russia rejected Ukraine’s truce letter and says there will be no return to the grain corridor. Ukraine attacked a Baltic Sea port overnight. Novorossiysk terminals remain closed with rail arrivals halted. HRS drought up another 5% and Western Australia cut production estimates. Sep Chicago at 50% retracement at 669, next resistance 679.

Livestock:
Oct live cattle down for the 3rd straight day after Tyson announced plant closures in Illinois and Utah. Cash in the north at 227 to 230, down $5 to $8 from last week, 5 area average 231.19. Next support is the July low at 216.95. Cutout up $3.62 to $375.90. Oct hogs fell sharply and may retest the month’s lows at 81.32. Lean hog index 95.89, pork cutout $98.66, resistance 83.70.

Reports Coming Out Today

Weekly Cattle Slaughter 1:00 PM
Weekly Hog Slaughter 1:00 PM
Commitment of Traders 2:30 PM