Grain Export Sales

Grain Export Sales

🌽 Corn: 565,810 MT
8.2% of USDA Est | Inside est range

🌱 Soybeans: 54,349 MT
6.4% of USDA Est | Inside est range

🌾 Wheat: 313,103 MT
29.0% of USDA Est | Inside est range

Analysis 

All three landed inside the estimate range this week, but the headline is the pace. Corn at 8.2% and beans at 6.4% are both running well below their five year averages of 11.7% and 11.5%, two weeks into the new marketing year. Wheat is the exception at 29.0% against 29.4%, right on the rail.

The corn and bean gaps look wide but there is context. Both commodities carried large Unknown cancellations through the marketing year turn, 631K MT for corn last week and another round of transition bookkeeping still washing through. Forward soybean commitments have been heavy, 408K MT in next year bookings this week alone, so the pipeline is filling even if current week sales look thin. Wheat is the cleanest read on this sheet, four straight weeks above 300K MT with the pace tracking the five year almost tick for tick.

Wednesday’s settle has Dec corn at 456.25, above all three moving averages with the 20 day at 432 and the 50 day at 450. RSI at 72 is getting warm. A close above the 464 swing high opens the door to 486. Nov beans at 1192.25 pushed through the 50 day at 1171 with RSI at 68, and a move past 1198 targets the 52 week high near 1223. Wheat at 607.75 is the laggard, sitting below the 50 day at 618 with RSI at 52.