Grain Export Sales

Grain Export Sales

🌽 Corn: 743,097 MT
100.2% of USDA Est | Inside est range

🌱 Soybeans: 455,405 MT
99.9% of USDA Est | Inside est range

🌾 Wheat: 504,489 MT
26.1% of USDA Est | Inside est range

Analysis

🌽 Corn
The corn export program has crossed the finish line. Sales of 743K MT pushed cumulative commitments to 100.2% of the USDA’s 3.325B bushel target, far ahead of the 94.7% five year average. Mexico led at 307K MT with Japan at 162K MT. Sep corn settled at $4.045 on Thursday, trading below all three major moving averages with the 20 day at $4.22, the 50 day at $4.50, and the 200 day at $4.40. The RSI at 28.3 remains oversold with the 52 week low at $3.95 providing the next major support level.

🌱 Soybeans
Soybean sales surged to 455K MT, pushing the cumulative pace to 99.9% of the USDA’s 1.51B bushel estimate, ahead of the 98.3% five year average. Forward commitments were heavy, with China locking in 200K MT for the new marketing year. Nov beans settled at $11.36, just below the 20 day MA at $11.42 and the 50 day at $11.73, but holding above the critical 200 day MA near $11.18. The RSI at 53.6 reflects a recovery to neutral territory from the deeply oversold conditions of recent weeks.

🌾 Wheat
Wheat posted its third consecutive strong week at 504K MT, with Mexico leading at 204K MT and Japan at 119K MT. The 26/27 marketing year pace of 26.1% has pulled ahead of the 25.7% five year average. The June WASDE lowered 26/27 production to 1.543B bushels on a yield cut to 47.0 bpa, trimming ending stocks to 744M bushels. Jul wheat settled at $5.915, below the 20 day MA at $5.98 and the 50 day at $6.20, but well above the 200 day at $5.61. The RSI at 56.2 sits in neutral territory.