Ethanol Production

Ethanol Production

Production: 1.107 mb/day
Weekly Total: 7.749 mil bbl
Stocks: 24.524 mil bbl
Corn Used: 110.25 vs 87.31 needed

Analysis 

1.107 million barrels per day for the week ending July 31, another new seasonal high going back to 2018. Production eased from last week’s 1.133 but still came in 2.4% above year ago and 6.3% above the five year average.

Stocks drew 202,000 barrels to 24.524 million but remain a seasonal record, 757,000 barrels above the previous high from 2024 and 1.26 million above the five year average. Plants are running hard and the system is absorbing most of it, though the 3.2% year over year surplus in stocks has been persistent for weeks now. Cumulative corn use crossed 5.188 billion of the 5.575 billion bushel USDA target with about six weeks left in the marketing year.

Corn settled Tuesday at 465.50, just below its 20 day moving average at 468, and is trading about 5 lower this morning. The 50 day at 448 and the 200 day at 446 sit close together roughly 20 cents below. RSI at 47.5 is neutral after the pullback from the late July highs near 487. A close below the 50 day cluster near 448 opens the door to the 430 area, while a push back above 468 and through the recent high at 487 targets 500.