Cattle on Feed

Cattle on Feed

On Feed: 99.6% (est. 100.2%)
Placements: 87.9% (est. 91.7%)
Marketings: 93.4% (est. 92.7%)

Analysis 

September placements came in at 1.78 million head, 87.9% of last year and below even the low end of the trade range (88.1% to 95.1%). NASS has that as the lowest September placement total since the series began in 1996, and marketings at 1.52 million head (93.4%) set the same September low. Cattle on feed October 1 totaled 11.37 million head, 99.6% of a year ago and a touch under the 100.2% estimate.

The drop in placements was broad, with Nebraska placing 490,000 head against 585,000 a year ago, Texas 330,000 against 390,000, and Kansas 420,000 against 465,000. Calves under 600 pounds fell to 360,000 from 405,000, which thins the fed supply coming out next spring and summer. Marketings landed above the top of the trade range (93.3%), so the yards moved cattle a little faster than the trade expected.

Nov feeders traded about a dollar higher Friday, with Dec live cattle little changed. Dec live cattle settled Thursday at 231.125, above the 20 day (225.19), the 50 day (220.75) and the 200 day (229.39), with RSI at 66.7 getting warm. A Dec live cattle close above the 232.45 swing high opens the door to the 245.90 high from early May, while a break below the 200 day at 229.39 puts the 20 day near 225.19 in play.