Corn:
Dec corn down 1 1/4 after rebounding from early weakness two straight sessions, with month end, quarter end and the quarterly stocks report all landing tomorrow. Stocks are expected at 1.918 billion bushels, a 6 year high and up from 1.551 last year, with USDA also setting the final 2025 carryout. Harvest hit 18% complete, right on average, and week 2 of the forecast turns much drier: without a bullish report tomorrow, resistance is the 530 area with support at 500 to 505.
Soybeans:
Nov beans near steady after Monday’s break below the month’s range flipped the near term edge to the bears, opening a test of the 1250 area in the coming days. Open interest plummeted across the soy complex on long liquidation, with trading volume the 2nd best since July 4. Tomorrow’s stocks report is expected at 324 million bushels, and the trade truce runs to January 10 with 2 more meetings scheduled before then: intraday resistance 1299.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat down 5 3/4 at another new monthly low, now down $1.14 this month and very oversold as it nears the 100 day moving average at 676. Tomorrow’s report is expected to show wheat stocks at 1.872 billion bushels, down from 2.134 a year ago, with all wheat production at 1.524 billion. A neutral number may be enough to spark a bounce given the extreme oversold conditions: risk and reward does not favor new shorts here, close in resistance 706.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle traded inside Friday’s range and last Monday’s gap still holds, keeping the edge with the bulls: above last week’s high at 223.20 opens the September highs near 225.50, with pullback support at 217.50 to 218.77. ICE driven worker absenteeism keeps cutting slaughter, down 10,000 head from last Monday at 95,000, and a 2nd active screwworm case was detected in a horse in southern Texas. Dec hogs fell to a new contract low with the lean hog index at its lowest since January 20: next support 66.90, and the record fund short may cushion but not stop the slide until a technical bottom forms.
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