Corn:
Dec corn down 7 1/2, giving back most of Monday’s rally on uncertainty over whether corn makes the trade talks, harvest pressure and a dollar at its highest since July 29. Private analysts peg US yield at 175 to 177 BPA with harvested acres possibly down 300,000 to 500,000 on silage chopping, and Coceral cut the EU and UK grain crop to 9% below last year. A breakout of the month’s range projects a 26 cent move in that direction: avoid chasing rallies into the summit.
Soybeans:
Nov beans down 8 3/4 with the China/US meetings starting in 24 hours: a truce extension of at least 6 months is likely, but anything short of purchases beyond the standing 25 million tonnes per year risks disappointing the market. Western belt harvest delays have spot bids surging, with a Sioux City plant paying $1 over Nov futures for delivery by this weekend, and Delta beans are moving north to supply western crushers. A move out of the 1290 1/4 to 1335 1/4 range projects 45 cents in that direction.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat down 10 3/4 at a new monthly low, testing the 50 day moving average at 706 that held the August break: a close below would be the first since early July and a technical disappointment, with support at 701. Wheat looks like the odd man out at the summit with US prices not competitive, and the Plains drought areas have a wetter forecast. Ukraine finished harvest with final totals 11% above last year.
Livestock:
Dec live cattle eased into the top of Monday’s gap, with better support likely at the gap bottom at 217.50 to 218.00: resistance 223.30, and the New Mexico border crossing reopening tomorrow plus the stronger dollar are the headwinds. Boxed beef cutout rose $2.54 to $378.89. Dec hogs left a small gap higher at 70.20, now intraday support, as funds trimmed their record shorts: resistance 71.90 then retracement at 72.60, with Hogs and Pigs tomorrow afternoon and Cold Storage Friday.
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