Corn:
Dec corn up 3 1/4 overnight, holding last week’s range. Friday’s COT showed managed money at a new extreme net long of 431,062 contracts, the highest since 2006, after buying nearly 55,000 in a week. French conditions dropped another 1% and Brazil’s August exports fell 32%: key support 526 1/2, with the 555 to 560 zone the place to book profits above 549 3/4.
Soybeans:
Nov beans up 1 1/2 after an overnight rally faded, 15 cents below the contract high. COT showed the largest bean net long since 2012 at 241,183 contracts plus a record meal long, and there was a flash sale to China or unknown every day last week. Pullback support near 1270 heading into Friday’s WASDE.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 17 and Dec KC up 20 1/4 after weekend talks with Ukraine and Russia produced no breakthrough. Managed money flipped to a net long near 15,000 in Chicago and extended to just over 50,000 in KC. Danube freight rates are rising and Latvia and Lithuania may ban Russian grain through their ports: a close over 765 in Dec Chicago could reignite the uptrend.
Livestock:
Oct live cattle weaker Friday with the managed money net long cut nearly 9,600 to 47,914, near a 2 year low. Cash traded 215 to 222 in the north with the south steady to $1 higher at 222 to 223, and a move above 215.45 shifts the short term outlook bullish with 220 possible through 216.40: key support 209.57. Oct hogs closed Friday on the lows: 81.60 is a near term buying opportunity, but a close below 81.50 keeps the bears in control.
Energy:
Strong energy prices are cited as a supportive factor for the grain complex this morning, firming ethanol margins under corn. Brazil’s August corn exports fell 32% partly on much larger domestic corn use for ethanol, tightening exportable supply. Danube freight rates are rising, adding cost to Ukraine’s alternative export routes.
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