Lakefront Morning Briefing

Lakefront Morning Briefing

Corn:
Dec corn down 3/4 overnight after closing in the upper part of the range, with buyers quick to jump on any minor break. The UN sees global grain production down 61.1 million tonnes this year, the largest drop since 2018, and French output is expected down 35% with conditions at 27% G/E vs 62% a year ago. Above this week’s high at 549 3/4 opens the 555 to 560 zone, where longs should book some profits: below 526 1/2 and selling accelerates.

Soybeans:
Nov beans near unchanged and set for a 4th straight higher weekly close, less than 10 cents below the contract high. China and Unknown have bought 1.1 million tonnes of US beans in the past week, and cumulative new crop sales stand at 36% of USDA’s forecast vs the 27.7% five year average. Shallow pullbacks keep the uptrend solid: support near 1270.

Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat steady overnight after nearly touching limit down yesterday morning, then halving the losses by the close. Yesterday’s low hit support at 730, just 2 cents above the July contract highs, and Odessa port was struck again overnight. Managed money net long is under 10,000 contracts, leaving room for a retest of this week’s highs.

Livestock:
Oct live cattle closed sharply higher on very strong volume and held firm as grains recovered, with stochastics giving a buy signal: next resistance just above 216. Brazil is warning the EU of reciprocal measures over its beef ban, and rumors of more screwworm cases on the Mexican side could delay further border reopenings. Oct hogs are struggling with the 50 day moving average, pork cutout down $4.11 to $91.26: a pullback to 82.00 remains a buying opportunity.

Reports Coming Out Today

Weekly Cattle Slaughter 1:00 PM
Weekly Hog Slaughter 1:00 PM
Commitment of Traders 2:30 PM