Corn:
Dec corn hit a new contract high to start the overnight session but is down 7 1/2 on broad commodity selling. Managed money net long estimated near 425,000, just short of the 435,350 record, with open interest up nearly 20,000 yesterday. A break below yesterday’s low at 534 would be the first clue a pullback has started: close in support 527, larger support 510 to 517.
Soybeans:
Nov beans made a new contract high overnight then reversed, down 13 1/2 this morning. Funds bought an estimated 62,000 contracts over the last 6 days, putting the net long near 245,000 vs the 254,000 record. Nov has rallied $1.60 since the August 11 low with no correction: initial pullback support near 1265.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat down 10 after another new contract high yesterday, pulling back despite heavy Black Sea attacks overnight. Managed money flipped to a net long near 20,000 from a 26,000 net short last Friday. Ukraine’s Farmers Union expects deepwater ports closed through the December to January window: pullback support 735 to 740.
Livestock:
Oct live cattle modestly weaker with open interest up over 3,400, but weaker feedgrains may support cattle today. Northern cash traded light at 218, boxed beef cutout up $3.93 to $379.75, and a push through 216.17 resistance would complete a short term bottom toward 220. Oct hogs tested the 50 day moving average this week: next resistance 85.55, with pullbacks below 82.00 a buying opportunity.
Energy:
Weekly ethanol production expected at 1.107 million barrels per day with stocks at 25.104 million barrels ahead of this morning’s report. July corn use for ethanol was 474.7 million bushels, up 3.7% year over year, keeping ethanol demand a support under corn. Energies broadly weak this morning, part of the pressure on the grain complex.
