Corn:
Dec corn down 1/4 after another new contract high overnight, with open interest up 35,585 Friday: buyers still moving in. Commitment of Traders showed managed money longs jumped over 126,000 to 376,513 as of mid last week, likely near 400,000 now vs the record 435,350. Prices are headed toward the 550 to 560 resistance band where longs should take some profits: close in support 527, strong pullback support 510 to 517.
Soybeans:
Nov beans down 3 1/2 after a 4th straight overnight contract high, headed for a test of $13.00 resistance. The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is up 13% in August, its best month since 2012, and managed money’s bean net long is probably near 225,000 vs the record 254,000. Hot and dry conditions run 2 more weeks and China keeps buying at higher prices: pullbacks toward 1260 should find solid support.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat down 12 in a technical correction from a new 3 year high, with nothing fundamentally turning bearish. Russia hit a merchant ship at a Romanian harbor over the weekend and Russian September exports are expected at the lowest since 2010. No rain from the Kansas/Nebraska border into southern Texas for at least a week: Dec Chicago support near 752, next resistance 799.
Livestock:
Oct live cattle stayed on the defensive Friday with the cutout down $5.13 at $376.23 and weekly slaughter jumping to 542,000 head. Futures are heavily discounted to cash, which could draw bargain hunters: close in resistance 215.10 then 216.40, with managed money’s 57,000 contract net long the liquidation risk. Oct hogs rallied late Friday to close at the best level in 2 weeks: seasonal pressure fades from here, resistance 83.50, key support 79.67.
Energy:
Energy prices were strong overnight as the US and Iran exchanged attacks over the weekend, adding crude supply risk that supports ethanol margins and the broader grain complex. Ukraine also continues to strike Russian energy infrastructure, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.
