Corn:
Dec corn up 6 1/4 at another new contract high, resuming the 13 day rally toward the 550 to 560 resistance band. French conditions fell another 1% to 28% G/E, the lowest on record vs 62% last year, and a Reuters report says China may want tariff relief before buying US feedgrains, demand not built into the balance sheet. This afternoon’s Commitment of Traders is expected to show managed money net longs near 345,000.
Soybeans:
Nov beans up 7 1/2 at another new high, closing higher every day this week, with bean oil strong on reports the White House may add 500 million gallons to 2027 biofuel quotas. Export sales totaled 2.55 million tonnes with cumulative sales at 31.7% of USDA’s forecast vs the 24.2% average. Nov tested 1279 this morning: next resistance 1298, longer term objectives near 1350, pullbacks toward 1260 should find solid support.
Wheat:
Dec Chicago wheat up 4 1/2 at a new contract high as Russian drone attacks continue to halt Odessa port operations. HRS area under drought jumped 17% to 80% vs 13% a year ago, and the heat dome over Oklahoma and Texas suppresses moisture chances for 10 days. A close over 767 resistance would be a win for the bulls: pullback support up to 741.
Livestock:
Oct live cattle closed strong Thursday off the lowest level since early December, with short covering expected to continue off very oversold levels, though this morning’s grain strength may pressure the open. Kansas bids renewed at 220 and are being passed: close in resistance 215.10, then 216.40. Oct hogs remain rangebound between 79.67 and 81.57: a close over 81.57 shifts the technicals, below 79.67 triggers stops.
Energy:
Ukraine struck Russia’s fifth largest refinery overnight, adding crude supply risk that feeds through to ethanol margins and corn grind economics. The corn rally is also pricing in the ongoing lack of Black Sea exports, and the possible 500 million gallon biofuel quota increase is a supportive factor for bean oil demand.
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