Cattle on Feed

Cattle on Feed

July

On Feed: 102.2% (est. 102.2%)

Placements: 97.1% (est. 98.2%)

Marketings: 97.3% (est. 97%)

June

On Feed: 102.1%

On Feed Million Head: 11.682

Placements: 97.1%

Marketings: 97.3%

Analysis 

The USDA/NASS decided to take 7 extra minutes to release the full Cattle on Feed report. Releasing it at 2:07pm instead of 2:00pm. 

Nevertheless, July 1 inventory came in at 11.37 million head, 2 percent above a year ago and dead on the 102.2 percent estimate. June marketings at 1.66 million head were the lowest for June since the series began in 1996, the third straight month at a record low pace. Placements at 1.40 million came in a point under the 98.2 percent estimate, the only real surprise in the report.

The marketing pace did improve. June’s 3 percent decline is a far cry from May’s 12 percent drop, and Wednesday’s monthly slaughter data showed why the smaller kill is not translating into less beef. June beef production actually rose 1 percent from last year on live weights up 39 pounds, so heavier cattle are fully replacing the missing head count. Steers on feed at 7.12 million are up 3 percent and now 63 percent of the total inventory.

Todays settle at 227.02 in August live cattle sits below the 20 day at 235.82, the 50 day at 245.24, and the 200 day at 238.44, with the 14 day RSI at 25. Feeders finished at 341.13, also under all three averages after this month’s break. A close back above the 20 day at 235.82 opens the door to the 200 day near 238.50, while a break under this week’s low at 221.70 targets the winter lows near 205.