Ethanol Production

Ethanol Production

Production: 1.094 mb/day
Weekly Total: 7.658 mil bbl
Stocks: 24.481 mil bbl
Corn Used: 108.96 vs 94.85 needed

Analysis 

Production snapped back to 1.094 million barrels per day for the week ending July 17, up 5.2% from the prior week and 1.5% above last year. Stocks edged up to 24.481 million, a new high for this week of the year, now a full million barrels above the five year average.

Corn usage at 108.96 million bushels runs 14.9% above the 94.85 weekly pace needed for USDA’s 5.575 billion bushel forecast. The needed number keeps falling as the year winds down, which flatters the ratio. Actual measured grind from USDA is still tracking barely 1% above last year, so the target stays a stretch.

Corn settled Tuesday at 475.25, a 20 day high, sitting above all three major moving averages with the 200 day back at 443. RSI at 66.2 is warm but not yet stretched, and the July rally has now run 63 cents off the late June low. A close above the 52 week high at 485.75 opens the door to 500, while a break back under the old swing high near 464 puts the 450 area in play.