EIA Energy Stocks

EIA Weekly Energy Stocks

Refinery Rate: 96.2% 

🛢 Crude Oil: 409.7M ▼ 1.7M wk | -12.5M yr

⛽ Gasoline: 210.5M ▼ 1.5M wk | -22.3M yr

🔥 Distillate: 108.2M ▲ 4.6M wk | +1.2M yr

🏭 ULSD: 98.4M ▲ 4.6M wk | +0.1M yr

Analysis 

Gasoline drew 1.5 million barrels for the week ending July 10 and is now 22.3 million below where it sat a year ago. That is the widest year over year deficit of the summer and it keeps getting wider. Crude drew 1.7 million alongside it. Distillate built 4.6 million, but after last week’s 5.0 million draw that reads more like a snapback than a turn. 

22.3 million barrels light on gasoline in mid July with refineries already running 96.2 percent. There is not a lot of room to push that rate higher, and the system is still not putting enough finished product away to close the gap. That kind of structural deficit keeps a floor under product cracks even when flat price is under pressure. 

Tuesday’s settle had WTI at $79.34, up more than $12 from the $67.04 low earlier in the month and now well clear of both the 20 day at $72.46 and the 200 day at $74.27. RSI at 69.2 is getting warm. A push through the swing high at $81.27 opens the door to the 50 day at $85.47, while a fade back below the 200 day at $74.27 would call the whole bounce into question.