July WASDE

July WASDE

🌽Corn
Yield: 183.0
Harvest Area: 87.4
Production: 16,000
Ending Stocks: 1,790

🫘Soybeans
Yield: 53.0
Harvest Area: 84.4
Production: 4,475
Ending Stocks: 310

🌾Wheat
Yield: 47.9
Harvest Area: 32.1
Production: 1,536
Ending Stocks: 722

Analysis 

New crop corn ending stocks at 1,790 million bushels, down 170 million from June’s 1,960. That is the number on this report. Old crop took a 125 million bushel hit too, dropping to 2,020 on a big upward revision to feed and residual. Combined that is nearly 300 million bushels pulled off the corn balance sheet in one month, and USDA did it without touching the 183.0 yield. If weather clips that number at all, this gets tight fast.

Soybeans were a wash. The acreage report added 700,000 harvested acres and 40 million bushels of production, but old crop stocks came down 10 million so new crop landed right back at 310. The crush and biofuel demand story remains intact at 14,550 million pounds of soy oil into renewable diesel for 25/26. 

Wheat tightened again to 722 million from 744 on lower area, even with the yield ticking up to 47.9 from 47.0. That is now 213 million below last year’s 935 and still the tightest wheat setup since 2022.