USDA Crop Progress

USDA Crop Progress

🌽 Corn G/E steady at 67%

🌱 Soybeans G/E slips to 64%

🌾 Winter Wheat G/E holds at 26%

🌾 Spring Wheat G/E eases to 57%

Analysis 

This afternoon’s USDA report showed corn conditions holding steady at 67% good/excellent for the second straight week, now 7 points below the year ago pace, while soybeans eased another point to 64% G/E with the gap to last year widening to 2 points. Winter wheat remains anchored at 26% G/E with harvest running well ahead of normal at 59% complete versus the five year average of 51%, suggesting producers are eager to clear a disappointing crop from the field. Spring wheat slipped 2 points to 57% G/E but remains comfortably above last year’s 50% reading.

With corn and soybean conditions continuing to lag year ago levels and the winter wheat crop historically poor heading into the back half of harvest, the fundamental picture remains supportive for grain prices as the market prices in tighter supply expectations into the heart of pollination season.

December corn settled Friday at 458.25, rallying sharply through both the 50 day moving average near 450 and the 200 day at 441, now trading at a fresh 20 day high with RSI pushing into overbought territory at 75.7. A close above the 460 to 465 area would open the door toward the 52 week high near 486, while the breakout zone around 440 to 442 should now act as support on any pullback. November soybeans surged to 1190.75, also printing a 20 day high and clearing the 50 day average at 1170 with RSI at 76.6. The January high near 1222 is the next upside target, with the breakout level around 1150 offering a floor. CBOT wheat rallied to 613.75, reclaiming the 50 day at 619 and sitting well above the 200 day at 563, with RSI at a neutral 61.8 and room to run toward the 20 day high at 621.