USDA Crop Progress

USDA Crop Progress

Analysis

This afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn conditions slipping 1 point to 67% good/excellent, now running 6 points below the year ago pace, while soybeans eased to 65% G/E with a similar undertone. Winter wheat remains historically poor at 26% G/E, roughly half the 48% reading posted a year ago, and Kansas harvest accelerated to 72% complete. Spring wheat was the bright spot, jumping 5 points to 59% G/E on improved Northern Plains moisture. 

December corn settled at 428.75 on Friday, reclaiming the 20 day moving average near 421.75 after bouncing off support in the 411 to 415 zone earlier this month. A sustained close above the 200 day average near 440 would open the door to a retest of the 50 day at 449, while a failure there keeps the broader downtrend intact. 

November soybeans at 1137.50 are hovering right at their 20 day average of 1139 and remain well supported above the 200 day at 1119. CBOT wheat settled at 578, sitting at the 20 day low and well below both the 20 day (595) and 50 day (619) moving averages, though the 200 day at 562 remains a downside floor. 

With conditions continuing to erode for corn and soybeans while the winter wheat crop struggles through harvest in poor shape, the fundamental backdrop tilts modestly bullish for grain and oilseed prices into the heart of the growing season.