Soybeans: 19.204 mbu
Corn🌽: 64.431 mbu
Wheat🌾: 12.283 mbu
Corn inspections pulled back to 1.637M MT after last week’s corrected figure topped 2M MT for the first time this marketing year. Mexico remained the top buyer at 440K MT followed by Japan at 226K and Taiwan at 153K. Even with the WoW decline, the marketing year total sits at 65.61M MT, 78.3% of USDA’s 3.3B bushel target with roughly 77% of the marketing year elapsed, keeping the pace comfortably ahead of projections. July corn settled Friday at $4.1275, below all three major moving averages (20 day at $4.43, 50 day at $4.56, 200 day at $4.40) with RSI at 9.9, an extreme oversold reading that rarely sustains. The 52 week low at $3.945 is the next major support, while a recovery back above the 200 day near $4.40 would be the first sign of a floor forming. The disconnect between strong physical export demand and collapsing futures prices is one of the more notable features of this market right now.
Soybeans bounced 26.8% to 522,687 MT after two weeks of sub 500K figures. Egypt was the dominant buyer at 218,249 MT with China at 136,259 and Mexico at 64,464. The marketing year has shipped 87.9% of USDA’s 1.53B bushel target. July beans settled at $11.32, still below the 20 day ($11.68) and 50 day ($11.79) but holding above the 200 day moving average at $11.14. RSI at 24.0 is oversold though not as extreme as corn. The 200 day continues to act as the line in the sand for beans. A sustained close below $11.14 would shift the technical picture bearish, while reclaiming the 20 day near $11.68 is needed to signal any meaningful recovery.
Wheat held steady at 334,292 MT, up 3.4% WoW. South Korea was the surprise top buyer at 105,822 MT followed by Mexico at 57,444 and Philippines at 53,302. This is only week two of the new wheat marketing year. July wheat settled at $5.845 with RSI at 11.3, deeply oversold. The 200 day moving average near $5.56 is the next major support level, while resistance sits at the 20 day high near $6.67.
Sorghum surged to 313,614 MT, a massive rebound from just 11,135 the prior week, with China taking all 313K MT through Gulf and Pacific ports.
